NFL Receptions Props – Model Fair Lines (Week 07)
Pre-kickoff model fair lines for every published NFL receptions market. The fair line is where the model's over/under probabilities balance; a book line beyond the model's published boundaries is where it sees value at standard vig. Every row links to the player's full research page with role evidence, price boundaries and model limitations.
Top 50 of 390 modeled players by projected volume. The full board, with live verification states and execution gating, lives in the PropStein terminal.
| Player | Matchup | Pos | Fair line | Proj volume | P(over) | Latest quote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs GB | WR | 9.5 | 9.88 | 67.0% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions) 7.5 (-110) |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs BAL | WR | 8.5 | 8.83 | 48.4% | unquoted |
| Puka Nacua | LA vs LV | WR | 7.5 | 8.33 | 53.7% | unquoted |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs KC | WR | 7.5 | 8.23 | 63.3% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks) 6.5 (-135) |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN vs IND | WR | 7.5 | 7.53 | 45.5% | unquoted |
| Trey McBride | ARI vs DEN | TE | 6.5 | 7.37 | 54.9% | unquoted |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs SEA | WR | 6.5 | 7.24 | 53.6% | unquoted |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs CLE | WR | 6.5 | 7.23 | 53.4% | unquoted |
| Chris Olave | NO vs PIT | WR | 6.5 | 6.97 | 62.5% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints) 5.5 (-150) |
| George Kittle | SF vs ATL | TE | 6.5 | 6.0 | 64.8% | FanDuel Opening Line 4.5 (-105) |
| Brock Bowers | LV vs LA | TE | 5.5 | 5.9 | 50.2% | unquoted |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs ATL | RB | 4.5 | 5.72 | 44.4% | unquoted |
| Zay Flowers | BAL vs CIN | WR | 4.5 | 5.24 | 55.5% | unquoted |
| A.J. Brown | NE vs CHI | WR | 4.5 | 5.23 | 55.4% | unquoted |
| Colston Loveland | CHI vs NE | TE | 4.5 | 5.17 | 54.5% | unquoted |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs HOU | WR | 4.5 | 5.09 | 53.5% | unquoted |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL vs SF | TE | 4.5 | 4.93 | 51.2% | unquoted |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ vs MIA | WR | 4.5 | 4.76 | 48.7% | unquoted |
| Keenan Allen | IND vs MIN | WR | 4.5 | 4.75 | 48.6% | unquoted |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs SF | RB | 4.5 | 4.65 | 47.1% | unquoted |
| Hunter Henry | NE vs CHI | TE | 2.5 | 4.54 | 59.1% | unquoted |
| Drake London | ATL vs SF | WR | 4.5 | 4.48 | 44.5% | unquoted |
| Michael Wilson | ARI vs DEN | WR | 4.5 | 4.36 | 42.6% | unquoted |
| Travis Kelce | KC vs SEA | TE | 3.5 | 4.29 | 57.7% | unquoted |
| Davante Adams | LA vs LV | WR | 3.5 | 4.29 | 57.6% | unquoted |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs TEN | TE | 3.5 | 4.25 | 57.0% | unquoted |
| Tee Higgins | CIN vs BAL | WR | 3.5 | 4.21 | 56.5% | unquoted |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs ATL | WR | 3.5 | 4.19 | 56.1% | unquoted |
| Tyler Warren | IND vs MIN | TE | 3.5 | 4.19 | 56.1% | unquoted |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL vs PHI | WR | 3.5 | 4.18 | 55.9% | unquoted |
| Sam LaPorta | DET vs GB | TE | 3.5 | 4.18 | 26.5% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions) 5.5 (+120) |
| Mike Evans | SF vs ATL | WR | 3.5 | 4.16 | 55.6% | unquoted |
| Mack Hollins | NE vs CHI | WR | 2.5 | 4.09 | 52.2% | unquoted |
| DeMario Douglas | NE vs CHI | WR | 2.5 | 4.06 | 43.2% | unquoted |
| Nico Collins | HOU vs NYG | WR | 3.5 | 4.05 | 53.9% | unquoted |
| DK Metcalf | PIT vs NO | WR | 3.5 | 3.99 | 36.8% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints) 4.5 (-130) |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI vs DAL | TE | 3.5 | 3.98 | 52.9% | unquoted |
| Jameson Williams | DET vs GB | WR | 3.5 | 3.9 | 51.5% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions) 3.5 (-145) |
| Cade Otton | TB vs CAR | TE | 3.5 | 3.83 | 50.2% | unquoted |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI vs DAL | WR | 3.5 | 3.77 | 49.2% | unquoted |
| George Pickens | DAL vs PHI | WR | 3.5 | 3.74 | 48.8% | unquoted |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs GB | RB | 3.5 | 3.73 | 32.5% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions) 4.5 (-150) |
| Christian Kirk | SF vs ATL | WR | 2.5 | 3.71 | 45.3% | unquoted |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB vs CAR | WR | 3.5 | 3.63 | 46.9% | unquoted |
| Tucker Kraft | GB vs DET | TE | 3.5 | 3.61 | 46.6% | unquoted |
| Luther Burden III | CHI vs NE | WR | 3.5 | 3.6 | 46.4% | unquoted |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR vs TB | WR | 3.5 | 3.55 | 45.4% | unquoted |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU vs NYG | TE | 3.5 | 3.52 | 45.0% | unquoted |
| Kenny Gainwell | TB vs CAR | RB | 3.5 | 3.48 | 44.1% | unquoted |
| Rome Odunze | CHI vs NE | WR | 3.5 | 3.47 | 44.0% | unquoted |
Why publish fair lines instead of picks
Most picks sites sell a table of odds. The professional question is not “what is the line” but “which side of this price is wrong, by how much, and how confident is the model.” PropStein publishes the fair line, the acceptable price boundaries, the role evidence behind each projection, and a dated track record — including the weeks where calibration was poor.
Evidence
- Published track record — every graded decision, including the bad ones
- Methodology — model, gating, verification and known defects
Model limitations
PropStein publishes model limitations alongside every page. Roles and thresholds are provisional pending chronological holdout validation. In our published week-1 holdout evaluation the model's Brier score trailed the naive baseline; we treat that as an open defect, not a marketing problem, and we publish recalibration results as they land. Snapshots are taken pre-kickoff; quotes age and lines move, so every number here carries a timestamp and a verification state. Route-participation and late-scratch information are not fully modeled. Nothing on this site is betting advice.