Christian Kirk – Receptions: Model Fair Line & Research
PropStein's pre-kickoff model projection for Christian Kirk (WR, SF) in the SF at ATL game — receptions market, 2026-W07. Snapshot taken .
No book quote was captured in this snapshot. The model numbers below stand alone.
Model projection
- Fair line
- 2.5 rec
- Projected volume
- 3.71 rec
- P(over) at fair
- 45.3%
- Role
- established_volume
Distribution parameters (NegBin–Gamma v3.2): mu_rec 3.7097, mu_ypr 11.3053, alpha 0.1097, k 1.555.
How to use the fair line
At −110 vig, the model sees value on the OVER at lines below 3.0 and on the UNDER at lines above 4.0. Between those boundaries, neither side clears the vig-adjusted breakeven. At the fair line (2.5), no-vig breakeven odds are −200 on the OVER (66.65% win prob) and +200 on the UNDER (33.35% win prob).
Role evidence
- Recent window
- last_1_game
- Baseline window
- prior_8_games_ewma
- Recent target share
- 7.1%
- Baseline target share
- 13.0%
- Career games
- 104
Role labels and thresholds remain provisional pending chronological holdout validation.
Injury context
This player appears in the availability feed as a beneficiary of teammate availability (+1.68). See the terminal's availability drawer for the full model treatment.
Related research
Model limitations
PropStein publishes model limitations alongside every page. Roles and thresholds are provisional pending chronological holdout validation. In our published week-1 holdout evaluation the model's Brier score trailed the naive baseline; we treat that as an open defect, not a marketing problem, and we publish recalibration results as they land. Snapshots are taken pre-kickoff; quotes age and lines move, so every number here carries a timestamp and a verification state. Route-participation and late-scratch information are not fully modeled. Nothing on this site is betting advice.