NFL Receiving Yards Props – Model Fair Lines (Week 07)
Pre-kickoff model fair lines for every published NFL receiving yards market. The fair line is where the model's over/under probabilities balance; a book line beyond the model's published boundaries is where it sees value at standard vig. Every row links to the player's full research page with role evidence, price boundaries and model limitations.
Top 50 of 390 modeled players by projected volume. The full board, with live verification states and execution gating, lives in the PropStein terminal.
| Player | Matchup | Pos | Fair line | Proj volume | P(over) | Latest quote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs GB | WR | 113.0 | 121.42 | 72.5% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions) 78.5 (-115) |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs BAL | WR | 101.5 | 109.97 | 50.1% | unquoted |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs KC | WR | 100.5 | 109.3 | 43.0% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks) 111.5 (+170) |
| Puka Nacua | LA vs LV | WR | 100.5 | 108.94 | 50.0% | unquoted |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN vs IND | WR | 90.5 | 98.72 | 50.0% | unquoted |
| Chris Olave | NO vs PIT | WR | 85.0 | 93.31 | 57.4% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints) 75.5 (-115) |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs CLE | WR | 80.0 | 87.29 | 49.5% | unquoted |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs SEA | WR | 76.0 | 83.13 | 49.6% | unquoted |
| Zay Flowers | BAL vs CIN | WR | 72.5 | 80.88 | 49.9% | unquoted |
| Trey McBride | ARI vs DEN | TE | 64.5 | 70.53 | 50.1% | unquoted |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs HOU | WR | 62.5 | 70.04 | 50.0% | unquoted |
| A.J. Brown | NE vs CHI | WR | 61.0 | 67.93 | 49.3% | unquoted |
| George Kittle | SF vs ATL | TE | 61.0 | 67.23 | 62.5% | DraftKings Opening Line 48.5 (-112) |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ vs MIA | WR | 59.0 | 66.24 | 49.3% | unquoted |
| Drake London | ATL vs SF | WR | 54.0 | 61.49 | 49.7% | unquoted |
| Brock Bowers | LV vs LA | TE | 55.0 | 60.92 | 49.5% | unquoted |
| Michael Wilson | ARI vs DEN | WR | 52.5 | 59.6 | 49.9% | unquoted |
| Colston Loveland | CHI vs NE | TE | 53.0 | 59.53 | 49.7% | unquoted |
| Nico Collins | HOU vs NYG | WR | 51.5 | 59.31 | 50.2% | unquoted |
| Tee Higgins | CIN vs BAL | WR | 51.5 | 58.95 | 50.2% | unquoted |
| Keenan Allen | IND vs MIN | WR | 48.0 | 53.99 | 49.3% | unquoted |
| Davante Adams | LA vs LV | WR | 47.5 | 53.83 | 49.7% | unquoted |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL vs SF | TE | 47.5 | 53.62 | 50.2% | unquoted |
| Mike Evans | SF vs ATL | WR | 46.5 | 53.25 | 50.1% | unquoted |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI vs DAL | WR | 46.0 | 53.12 | 49.4% | unquoted |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR vs TB | WR | 45.5 | 52.91 | 49.9% | unquoted |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL vs PHI | WR | 46.0 | 52.48 | 49.4% | unquoted |
| Mack Hollins | NE vs CHI | WR | 30.0 | 52.27 | 49.4% | unquoted |
| DK Metcalf | PIT vs NO | WR | 45.0 | 51.61 | 40.1% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints) 54.5 (-115) |
| Christian Watson | GB vs DET | WR | 44.0 | 51.53 | 24.1% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions) 74.5 (-115) |
| Jameson Williams | DET vs GB | WR | 44.0 | 50.82 | 41.2% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions) 52.5 (-115) |
| DeMario Douglas | NE vs CHI | WR | 24.5 | 49.57 | 49.6% | unquoted |
| Rome Odunze | CHI vs NE | WR | 41.5 | 48.28 | 49.8% | unquoted |
| George Pickens | DAL vs PHI | WR | 41.5 | 48.22 | 50.2% | unquoted |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs ATL | WR | 42.0 | 47.82 | 49.2% | unquoted |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs TEN | TE | 41.5 | 47.28 | 50.0% | unquoted |
| Tank Dell | HOU vs NYG | WR | 40.0 | 47.17 | 49.4% | unquoted |
| Travis Kelce | KC vs SEA | TE | 41.0 | 46.9 | 49.6% | unquoted |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs ATL | RB | 41.5 | 46.13 | 63.2% | BetMGM Opening Line 32.5 (-115) |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN vs ARI | WR | 38.0 | 45.34 | 49.7% | unquoted |
| Hunter Henry | NE vs CHI | TE | 27.0 | 44.91 | 49.5% | unquoted |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF vs ATL | WR | 38.0 | 44.83 | 49.6% | unquoted |
| Tyler Warren | IND vs MIN | TE | 39.0 | 44.67 | 49.5% | unquoted |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE vs TEN | WR | 38.0 | 44.61 | 49.4% | unquoted |
| Sam LaPorta | DET vs GB | TE | 38.5 | 44.09 | 36.8% | Bovada Live Sportsbook API (Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions) 49.5 (-115) |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB vs CAR | WR | 36.5 | 43.39 | 50.2% | unquoted |
| Luther Burden III | CHI vs NE | WR | 37.0 | 42.91 | 49.3% | unquoted |
| Alec Pierce | IND vs MIN | WR | 35.5 | 42.76 | 49.9% | unquoted |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN vs ARI | WR | 36.0 | 42.5 | 49.6% | unquoted |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI vs DAL | TE | 36.5 | 42.14 | 50.3% | unquoted |
Why publish fair lines instead of picks
Most picks sites sell a table of odds. The professional question is not “what is the line” but “which side of this price is wrong, by how much, and how confident is the model.” PropStein publishes the fair line, the acceptable price boundaries, the role evidence behind each projection, and a dated track record — including the weeks where calibration was poor.
Evidence
- Published track record — every graded decision, including the bad ones
- Methodology — model, gating, verification and known defects
Model limitations
PropStein publishes model limitations alongside every page. Roles and thresholds are provisional pending chronological holdout validation. In our published week-1 holdout evaluation the model's Brier score trailed the naive baseline; we treat that as an open defect, not a marketing problem, and we publish recalibration results as they land. Snapshots are taken pre-kickoff; quotes age and lines move, so every number here carries a timestamp and a verification state. Route-participation and late-scratch information are not fully modeled. Nothing on this site is betting advice.