Theo Johnson – Receptions: Model Fair Line & Research
PropStein's pre-kickoff model projection for Theo Johnson (TE, NYG) in the NYG at HOU game — receptions market, 2026-W07. Snapshot taken .
No book quote was captured in this snapshot. The model numbers below stand alone.
Model projection
- Fair line
- 2.5 rec
- Projected volume
- 2.82 rec
- P(over) at fair
- 50.9%
- Role
- none
Distribution parameters (NegBin–Gamma v3.2): mu_rec 2.8213, mu_ypr 11.5778, alpha 0.1097, k 1.555.
How to use the fair line
At −110 vig, the model sees value on the OVER at lines below 2.0 and on the UNDER at lines above 3.0. Between those boundaries, neither side clears the vig-adjusted breakeven. At the fair line (2.5), no-vig breakeven odds are −104 on the OVER (50.95% win prob) and +104 on the UNDER (49.05% win prob).
Role evidence
- Recent window
- last_1_game
- Baseline window
- prior_8_games_ewma
- Recent target share
- 15.4%
- Baseline target share
- 17.6%
- Career games
- 26
Role labels and thresholds remain provisional pending chronological holdout validation.
Related research
Model limitations
PropStein publishes model limitations alongside every page. Roles and thresholds are provisional pending chronological holdout validation. In our published week-1 holdout evaluation the model's Brier score trailed the naive baseline; we treat that as an open defect, not a marketing problem, and we publish recalibration results as they land. Snapshots are taken pre-kickoff; quotes age and lines move, so every number here carries a timestamp and a verification state. Route-participation and late-scratch information are not fully modeled. Nothing on this site is betting advice.