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No LLM in Decision Path — Verified SHA-256 Receipt
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
POINTS OVER 31.5 · Q2 4:12 (29 Oct, 2026)
+5.8% CLV BEAT
Entry Line 31.5 (-110)
Closing Line 33.0 (-125)
Realized CLV +5.8% (+1.5 pts)
Model Fair Line 34.9 pts
Alert Edge +6.3%
P(Fair) / P(Imp) 64.0% / 52.4%
Kelly Stake 2.5% Bankroll
Status GRADED · WON
Receipt Hash: sha256:d8a4f1082c47a98e102f6b8910e52701b2a3c4d5e6f708192a3b4c5d6e7f809
Source Hash: sha256:e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855
Engine: propstein-dist-v2.4 (Compound Negative Binomial / Gamma)
✓ Cryptographically verified against historical ledger snapshot.
The Mathematical Advantage
📐
Deterministic Pricing Core
No LLM guesses numbers. Fair values are computed from compound Negative Binomial and Gamma probability density functions with empirical calibration error ECE < 1.2%.
⚡
5-Second Live PBP Spine
When a player subs out with foul trouble or injury, PropStein recalculates usage redistribution immediately against cached sportsbook & Polymarket orderbooks.
📈
Cross-Venue Polymarket Arb
Simultaneously compares traditional books (DK/FD) against Polymarket orderbook liquidity to exploit 30-60 second mispricing windows.
8
Graded Alerts This Week
87.5%
CLV Beat Rate
+5.8%
Mean Closing Line Value
+6.7%
Simulated Flat ROI
Live In-Game Opportunities Detected Now
PROPSTEIN SNIPER FEED · LIVE ● 3 ACTIVE ARBS
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) · PTS Over 31.5 DraftKings @ -110 · Edge: +6.3% · Fair 34.9
Tyrese Maxey (PHI) · PTS Over 26.5 Polymarket CLOB @ $0.55 · Edge: +7.0% · Fair 29.8
Jayson Tatum (BOS) · PTS Over 28.5 FanDuel @ -108 · Edge: +5.9% · Fair 31.4
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